Robert Lucas Jr.

In practice, we economists are often asked to predict the future, but our models are better at explaining the past.

Business cycles are all alike in one respect: they are caused by monetary disturbances.

Policy rules are superior to discretion because they prevent time-inconsistency problems.

The future is not something we enter; the future is something we create.

Econometrics is the art of turning data into nonsense if you're not careful.

Real business cycle theory shows that shocks to technology drive fluctuations.

Governments should not try to fine-tune the economy; it's like steering a ship by adjusting the sails in a storm.

The Nobel Prize is a great honor, but it's the ideas that matter, not the medal.

In economics, as in life, expectations shape reality.

Hyperinflation is the worst tax a government can impose on its people.

Models are simplifications, but without them, we're lost in the data.

The Lucas critique reminds us that policy changes alter behavior.

Life is too short to waste on bad economic policies.

Rationality in economics means agents optimize given their information.

The 2008 crisis showed that we still have much to learn about financial markets.

Economics is not just about money; it's about choices and trade-offs.

Predicting recessions is easy; preventing them is hard.

In my career, the thrill comes from solving puzzles that affect millions.

Monetary policy can't fix structural problems; it can only buy time.

The beauty of general equilibrium is that it ties everything together.