Amos Tversky

Cognitive dissonance drives us to rationalize our choices.

The hot hand fallacy makes us see patterns in randomness.

Sunk cost fallacy traps us into continuing bad investments.

Framing a choice as a gain or loss changes risk preferences dramatically.

Humans prefer sure things over gambles with equal expected value.

The gambler's fallacy expects streaks to reverse due to independence illusion.

Base rate neglect: we ignore prior probabilities in favor of specifics.

Conjunction fallacy: we think specific scenarios more likely than general ones.

Support theory: unpacked events seem more probable than packed ones.

Causal base rates are used more than diagnostic ones.

The affect heuristic: emotions guide our risk perceptions.

Optimism bias makes us think good outcomes are more likely for us.

In collaboration, two heads can be better than one, but only if they challenge each other.

Life is a series of gambles, and understanding biases helps us play better.