Nassim Nicholas Taleb — "Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average."
Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.
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More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
"The problem with democracy is that it's based on the idea that everyone's opinion is equally valid."
"Intellect without balls is like a racecar without tires."
"If you want to be free, learn to say no."
"Journalists are the lowest form of intellectual life."
"Virtue is when the income you wish to show the tax agency exceeds what you wish to show your neighbor."
About Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1960)
Lebanese-American probabilist and The Black Swan (2007) author whose work on tail risk and antifragility reshaped finance and policy thinking. Closely associated with Benoit Mandelbrot (fractal mathematician, Taleb's mentor figure). For an intellectual contrast, see Steven Pinker, Harvard psychologist and The Better Angels of Our Nature author — Taleb has spent the 2010s publicly attacking Pinker's data-driven 'things are getting better' optimism as naive Gaussian thinking under fat-tailed reality — the loudest public statistics argument of the decade.