Nassim Nicholas Taleb — "Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average."
Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.
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More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
"Sophisticated minds adopt simplified lifestyles."
"The world is divided into two types of people: those who divide the world into two types of people, and those who don't."
"The more you try to be unique, the more you become like everyone else."
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously."
"The best way to get rich is to avoid getting poor."
About Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1960)
Lebanese-American probabilist and The Black Swan (2007) author whose work on tail risk and antifragility reshaped finance and policy thinking. Closely associated with Benoit Mandelbrot (fractal mathematician, Taleb's mentor figure). For an intellectual contrast, see Steven Pinker, Harvard psychologist and The Better Angels of Our Nature author — Taleb has spent the 2010s publicly attacking Pinker's data-driven 'things are getting better' optimism as naive Gaussian thinking under fat-tailed reality — the loudest public statistics argument of the decade.