Nassim Nicholas Taleb — "Nobel prize guy is an idiot."
Nobel prize guy is an idiot.
Nobel prize guy is an idiot.
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"The most dangerous people in the world are the ones who think they know what they’re doing."
"Hotel heuristic: In a new hotel, always reject the first room they give you."
"Looks like the only people who do not think that economists are bullshitters are economists."
"The problem with 'experts' is that they're often optimized for telling a good story, not for accurate prediction."
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously."
Lebanese-American probabilist and The Black Swan (2007) author whose work on tail risk and antifragility reshaped finance and policy thinking. Closely associated with Benoit Mandelbrot (fractal mathematician, Taleb's mentor figure). For an intellectual contrast, see Steven Pinker, Harvard psychologist and The Better Angels of Our Nature author — Taleb has spent the 2010s publicly attacking Pinker's data-driven 'things are getting better' optimism as naive Gaussian thinking under fat-tailed reality — the loudest public statistics argument of the decade.
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