Did Alan Turing Predict AI Would Surpass Human Intelligence?

Alan Turing's 1950 paper 'Computing Machinery and Intelligence' is considered the foundational text of artificial intelligence. In it, he proposed what became known as the 'Turing Test' -- the idea that a machine could be considered intelligent if a human could not distinguish its responses from those of another human. While Turing did discuss the possibility of machines surpassing human intelligence, his actual writing was more tentative and philosophical. He wrote carefully about the implications, noting 'We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done.' The simplified version of his ideas, compressed into pithy quotes, loses the careful nuance that characterized his actual thinking on the subject.