Nassim Nicholas Taleb — "Never trust a statistician."
Never trust a statistician.
Never trust a statistician.
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"The more you try to optimize, the more fragile you become."
"I want to write books that only those who read them claim they did."
"The more you try to control things, the more they control you."
"People are much more willing to take advice from someone who looks like them."
"So long as you see the picture of Larry Summers going to Davos, you have to stay short U.S. Treasuries for another year. It means they [the Obama administration] don't know what's going on."
Lebanese-American probabilist and The Black Swan (2007) author whose work on tail risk and antifragility reshaped finance and policy thinking. Closely associated with Benoit Mandelbrot (fractal mathematician, Taleb's mentor figure). For an intellectual contrast, see Steven Pinker, Harvard psychologist and The Better Angels of Our Nature author — Taleb has spent the 2010s publicly attacking Pinker's data-driven 'things are getting better' optimism as naive Gaussian thinking under fat-tailed reality — the loudest public statistics argument of the decade.
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