Enrico Fermi — "Oh, anything with a probability of less than 20%."
Oh, anything with a probability of less than 20%.
Get This Quote & Author's Image Illustrated On:
Click any product to generate a realistic preview. Up to 3 at a time.
* Initial load can take up to 90 seconds — revising the preview in another color is nearly instant.
Kitchen
Apparel
Other
More from Enrico Fermi
"The greatest adventure of all is to explore the unknown."
"We are like children playing on the seashore, and we have found a few smooth pebbles and pretty shells, while the great ocean of truth lies undiscovered before us."
"I have been very lucky in my life. I have always been able to do what I wanted to do, and I have always been able to do it with people I liked."
"The first principle of science is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool."
"I am a simple man, and I like simple explanations."
Verification
Unverifiable
Found in 1 providers: gemini
1 source checked
Understanding this quote
What it means
When asked what qualifies as a miracle, Fermi reduces the question to a threshold: anything with odds below one-in-five. The quote strips mysticism from wonder entirely, treating surprise and the miraculous not as metaphysical categories but statistical ones — events that fall outside what we expect to happen most of the time. Human awe, in Fermi's framing, is simply poor calibration of probability.
Relevance to Enrico Fermi
Fermi was legendary for quantifying the seemingly unquantifiable — his Fermi estimates used rough probability math to reach surprisingly accurate answers. As architect of the first nuclear reactor and a Manhattan Project leader, he worked daily with reaction probabilities and statistical margins. A man who calmly calculated whether the Trinity test might ignite the atmosphere naturally defined miracles in percentages rather than poetry.
The era
In the 1940s and 1950s, quantum mechanics had replaced classical determinism with probability as the fundamental language of physics. Fermi operated in a world where particles had no certain positions, only likelihoods. The Manhattan Project demanded rigorous statistical risk analysis of chain reactions. Scientists were learning that nature itself speaks in probabilities, making Fermi's casual reduction of miracles to a 20% threshold both intellectually honest and perfectly of its time.
AI-generated insights based on extensive research and information for context. Factual errors? Email [email protected].