Nassim Nicholas Taleb — "The problem with 'experts' is that they're often optimized for telling a good st…"
The problem with 'experts' is that they're often optimized for telling a good story, not for accurate prediction.
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More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
"Academia is a large collective fraud."
"People are much less interested in what you are trying to show them than in what you are trying to hide."
"The more you try to optimize, the more fragile you become."
"The most reliable way to tell if someone is stupid is if they're an academic who's successful in their field."
"Journalists make me feel dirty."
About Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1960)
Lebanese-American probabilist and The Black Swan (2007) author whose work on tail risk and antifragility reshaped finance and policy thinking. Closely associated with Benoit Mandelbrot (fractal mathematician, Taleb's mentor figure). For an intellectual contrast, see Steven Pinker, Harvard psychologist and The Better Angels of Our Nature author — Taleb has spent the 2010s publicly attacking Pinker's data-driven 'things are getting better' optimism as naive Gaussian thinking under fat-tailed reality — the loudest public statistics argument of the decade.