Nassim Nicholas Taleb — "Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average."
Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.
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More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
"To understand the world, you must be a generalist. To make a living, you must be a specialist."
"The only way to be truly antifragile is to have skin in the game."
"The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary."
"Some people are only funny when they try to be serious."
"Never trust a journalist who hasn't been fired at least once."
About Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1960)
Lebanese-American probabilist and The Black Swan (2007) author whose work on tail risk and antifragility reshaped finance and policy thinking. Closely associated with Benoit Mandelbrot (fractal mathematician, Taleb's mentor figure). For an intellectual contrast, see Steven Pinker, Harvard psychologist and The Better Angels of Our Nature author — Taleb has spent the 2010s publicly attacking Pinker's data-driven 'things are getting better' optimism as naive Gaussian thinking under fat-tailed reality — the loudest public statistics argument of the decade.