Nassim Nicholas Taleb — "Prediction is a fool's errand."
Prediction is a fool's errand.
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More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
"Attention authors: if a reviewer writes an unfair review of your work, contact me, I can be very unfair in reviewing his review."
"The problem with smart people is that they think they can outsmart randomness."
"Journalists are the lowest form of intellectual life."
"The only way to learn is by doing."
"The more energy you spend trying to control things, the less energy you have to adapt to them."
About Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1960)
Lebanese-American probabilist and The Black Swan (2007) author whose work on tail risk and antifragility reshaped finance and policy thinking. Closely associated with Benoit Mandelbrot (fractal mathematician, Taleb's mentor figure). For an intellectual contrast, see Steven Pinker, Harvard psychologist and The Better Angels of Our Nature author — Taleb has spent the 2010s publicly attacking Pinker's data-driven 'things are getting better' optimism as naive Gaussian thinking under fat-tailed reality — the loudest public statistics argument of the decade.