Nassim Nicholas Taleb — "Prediction is a fool's errand."
Prediction is a fool's errand.
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More from Nassim Nicholas Taleb
"The most reliable way to tell if someone is stupid is if they're an academic who's successful in their field."
"The only way to be truly successful is to fail often."
"The problem with experts is that they are so good at their field that they forget what it's like to be a beginner."
"The good life is simple. Don't f*ck it up by making it complicated."
"To be a good philosopher, you need to be a good bullshit detector."
About Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1960)
Lebanese-American probabilist and The Black Swan (2007) author whose work on tail risk and antifragility reshaped finance and policy thinking. Closely associated with Benoit Mandelbrot (fractal mathematician, Taleb's mentor figure). For an intellectual contrast, see Steven Pinker, Harvard psychologist and The Better Angels of Our Nature author — Taleb has spent the 2010s publicly attacking Pinker's data-driven 'things are getting better' optimism as naive Gaussian thinking under fat-tailed reality — the loudest public statistics argument of the decade.