Nassim Nicholas Taleb — "A good book gets better on the second reading. A great book on the third. Any bo…"
A good book gets better on the second reading. A great book on the third. Any book not worth rereading isn't worth reading.
A good book gets better on the second reading. A great book on the third. Any book not worth rereading isn't worth reading.
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"The problem with 'experts' is that they're often optimized for telling a good story, not for accurate prediction."
"Beware of people who always agree with you."
"Never trust a statistician who doesn't gamble."
"The more you try to predict the future, the more you are fooled by randomness."
"The best way to detect a charlatan is to see how they react to criticism. They will attack the messenger."
Lebanese-American probabilist and The Black Swan (2007) author whose work on tail risk and antifragility reshaped finance and policy thinking. Closely associated with Benoit Mandelbrot (fractal mathematician, Taleb's mentor figure). For an intellectual contrast, see Steven Pinker, Harvard psychologist and The Better Angels of Our Nature author — Taleb has spent the 2010s publicly attacking Pinker's data-driven 'things are getting better' optimism as naive Gaussian thinking under fat-tailed reality — the loudest public statistics argument of the decade.
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