Nassim Nicholas Taleb — "An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very n…"
An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.
An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.
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"Modern life is a product of people who don't understand probability."
"Academia is a large collective fraud."
"Education is bad for you."
"The more you try to predict the future, the more you are fooled by randomness."
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence."
Lebanese-American probabilist and The Black Swan (2007) author whose work on tail risk and antifragility reshaped finance and policy thinking. Closely associated with Benoit Mandelbrot (fractal mathematician, Taleb's mentor figure). For an intellectual contrast, see Steven Pinker, Harvard psychologist and The Better Angels of Our Nature author — Taleb has spent the 2010s publicly attacking Pinker's data-driven 'things are getting better' optimism as naive Gaussian thinking under fat-tailed reality — the loudest public statistics argument of the decade.
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